Professor Elm's Lecture #188 from Lost Thunder

Should you grade Professor Elm's Lecture #188?

Lost Thunder · grading ROI analysis

Verdict HOLD RAW

Expected value is near zero or negative. The PSA fee + the realistic gem rate mean most submissions of this card will not recoup the cost. Sell raw or hold.

Ungraded

$0.69

PSA 10

$60.00

Gem rate

0.0%

PSA pop

1

The math

Breakeven sale price (raw price + PSA fee)

$0.69 + $25 = $25.69

You need to sell the slabbed card for at least this much to break even.

Projected PSA 10 uplift

($60.00 − $0.69 − $25) ÷ $0.69 × 100 = +4972%

If you grade this card AND it returns PSA 10, this is your gross return on grading.

Expected value (uplift × gem rate)

4972% × 0.0% = +0.0%

The real number. Adjusts for the fact that not every submission grades PSA 10.

Net PSA 10 proceeds after marketplace fees

eBay: $44.25 · TCGplayer: $50.55

After 13.25% eBay (or 10.25% TCGplayer) fee + per-order fee + ship. Subtract PSA grading fee ($25) + any PSA shipping for true profit. See methodology.

What this calculator doesn't show

  • Shipping costs. PSA shipping (in + out) typically adds $5–$15 per submission.
  • Selling fees. eBay takes ~13% of gross; TCGplayer ~10%. Subtract from PSA 10 price for net proceeds.
  • Holding cost. 30–60 day PSA turnaround means your capital is tied up.
  • Sub-grade outcomes. A PSA 9 might still beat ungraded price, but a PSA 8 often doesn't. We model only the binary PSA-10-or-bust outcome — be more conservative for borderline cards.
  • Market volatility. PSA 10 prices can swing 20%+ on news cycles. Today's calculated uplift is a snapshot.

Want the full picture — pop report, price ladder, 30-day trend, and related cards?

Full Professor Elm's Lecture #188 page →

See methodology for full details on how we source data and calculate ROI.